If I were to take a bet, I believe #4, followed by #3 are sure to happen; while either of #1 and #2 may transpire for agencies depending on how well they embrace #4 and #3. In the last few months, many people have tasted comforts of remote work / life, especially the otherwise digitally shy [boomers or equivalent generation] and become comfortable with using digital means. So travel agencies which relied on footfall from their presence in prominent commercial districts, may realise that a digital presence is as or more important to solicit customers. At the same time, agencies which already have digital presence, but low-profile physical presence may see a faster revival of business.

Expectations of digital experience may transcend the need to just have a website, customers may expect a deeper digital experience in terms of self-service/customer-service. Further, their expectations from their regular travel agency may be referenced based on their experience with other digital players like OTAs or Payment apps.

Another trend which Covid will intensify is a shift from fulfilment to customer service – already customers access the same travel information that agencies do. The travel agent’s value therefore is in ‘curating’ the travel plan as per the customer’s preferences and in providing value added customer service. Demonstratable value addition, coupled with digital delivery, will be key to survival and flourishing of travel agencies.

Destination Management Companies (DMCs)

Essentially the ‘suppliers’ of all services you consume when you travel, DMCs are the equivalent of ‘ancillary industries’ in manufacturing. Same as Small Scale ancillaries they thrive on lean cash flows and workforce – a lot of gig economy work, whether its taxi drivers or amateur tour guides depend on DMCs for their livelihood. DMCs have been hardest hit by the Covid-19 bans as regular cash flow has been disrupted and with their already lean model, they haven’t had much buffer to support their employees / contractors / gig workers.

While their regular cash flow will resume as Covid-19 bans lift across the globe, there are some fundamental shifts which will occur in the DMC world also. Just like travel agencies will need to digitise, DMCs will also need to feed into this digital supply chain if they want to stay relevant. This is no different than other gig-economy workers. Just like an Uber driver has a better chance of getting an on-demand booking, compared to a taxi which operates in the taxistand, DMCs who are already a part of a digital platform will recover faster than others.

Plugging in to the digital supply chain may be much harder than one imagines. Unlike an Uber driver who just needs to enlist his/her profile with the app and get started, a DMC will need to do a lot more work. It starts with digitising the ‘rate-card’ of services – many DMCs still work via email providing quotes based on ‘manual calculations’ done by staff. Having standardised services, rates cards, rate calculations [including tax considerations], they need to either customise them to fit the digital platform’s template or develop their own software to provide online feeds. [Full disclosure: Darwin’s solution provides potential solutions to DMCs in the in-between space also. Contact here to explore more]

Once the price determination / quotation is taken care of, DMCs will also need to explore opportunities of digitising the fulfilment cycle. DMCs shall need to use digital means such as Messenger apps, mobile apps and QR codes to make it easy for the traveller to avail the services they have booked or to reach out to the DMC for help.

Online Portals

This is a tricky one, because the Online Portals come in several shapes and sizes. More importantly they are simply the window to the existing fabric of travel service companies. While it is true that the offline travel agency has been hit hard over last several years with the rise of the Online Travel Portals, the offline world has also transformed itself to cohabit the ecosystem. Covid-19 has hit offline and online players equally in terms of revenue but unlike small offline agencies, who may have the luxury of laying off staff, online players may not be able to do so. Further, there are technology costs which are fixed and difficult to cut out completely.

I do not have any general prediction to make for the online portals except that the industry may see consolidation in the coming years, but also that innovation will remain key to not just survival but thriving in future. Players who embrace new realities, ideate, iterate, fail fast at lower costs are sure to reap the long-term fruits that the post-Covid-19 world begets.

Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus - Mumbai Unprecedented Lockdown

Its been a month and 10 days of the lockdown here in India, an attempt to contain the outbreak of Covid-19; the deadly virus which has engulfed the whole world and caused the death of thousands - possibly the most deaths mankind has seen in a span of few months since the Second World War. [I mean this only in the global context though, locally we have had wars, calamities and similar viral outbreaks which have outnumbered Covid-19.]

As the founder of a travel startup, I was initially terribly shaken at how life has been thrown completely out of gear by this deadly virus. Travel is the worst affected sector; suddenly 2020 which we had planned to be the 'explosive growth' year for us has thrown us into an existential crisis. The situation has taken such a wild turn that I've grown comfortably numb only shifting the timeline of our 'explosive' growth to the next calendar year [or potentially even further] while we try to figure out how we will survive till we hit that point.

However, among all the bad news - there's a lot of positive stuff that's happening and some of that I wanted to record here today.

Consumerism has taken a backseat 

The second aspect is of Family time going up. Social media which had destroyed dinner table conversations is now going reverse - I am so fed up of the screen by the time I start my dinner that I'd rather listen to my daughter's chattering than stare away into the mobile. And if I still dare to look at my mobile, now that I am spending my entire day at home, my daughter knows that I was working all day and so she won't let me stare away into the last email on my phone as I munch my food. My work-life balance may be screwed (it always was!) but irrespective, I am indeed spending more time with family than what I used to.

We are discovering ourselves and our community
And Social Media - well, its finally connecting us back. We have daily video calls with parents who live far, we have family video call gatherings. We are also Zooming with school friends whom we haven't talked to in decades.

And people reopening their hobbies - someone I know started an Origamy class online. Another of my mentors is writing long Facebook / LinkedIn posts sharing nuggets of wisdom from his two-decade long entrepreneurial journey. My wife is busy destressing herself by drawing and painting; as I type this, the wall next to me has a half-painted unicorn sketch which will possibly be coloured tomorrow. And I am finally writing on my blog! :-) 

As I sipped my cutting cup of of tea at the tea stall, I couldn't but help notice the guffaws of the sabzi waala (vegetable vendor) sitting right next - from what I could overhear in the cacophony of street traffic, he was watching some Bhojpuri standup comedy. The chai waala (tea vendor) noticed my scrutiny of his neighbour, smiled and then said:

Jio ने सबको बीज़ी कर दिया है! ग्राहक आए या ना आए - ये अपना भोजपुरी इन्टरटेंमेंट में ही लगा रहता है! 😆 

With the economic headwinds strong, and no sight of respite - it amused me to notice the scene I was in. The poor vendor was not disappointed or dejected; he wasn't looking forward to his job or future either - notably, food inflation has remained at its lowest levels in the last few years due to efforts of Modi government and the vegetable vendor has surely not had or expected higher earnings. Other forms of inflation - housing, transport (fuel) etc - are moderate and hence his savings, if he has any, would not have grown,  rather would have been depleting. The only thing that may have improved for him is what his preoccupation thence - cheaper data speeds and thus access to cheap personalised entertainment.

Mulling over all this, I proceeded to board the metro train. It was rush hour and the metro was jampacked with people - most were texting or watching videos on their phones here too. Most of them would be midlevel executives going by their attire - I wondered why they were in a metro? I knew the answer because it was the same reason I was in the metro - the roads were worse than the jampacked metro - there were not only jampacked, they were worse in terms of commute time; Mumbai ranked #4 in traffic congestion and the city's roads saw 119% congestion in 2019.

Again, for the mid-level city executive, a look at the last 5 years was the same as that for the vegetable vendor - traffic hadn't gotten any better, commute times have only risen; so have fuel costs.

Interestingly, we've had two dips in international crude oil in these 5 years - but on both occasions [rather time periods], the govt has chosen to enjoy the gains of the lower pricing to fund its own deficit than pass on the benefits to the consumers/citizens. Not that cheaper fuel would have helped - it would only have made the terrible traffic woes even more terrible.

Food inflation has stayed low but real estate is so damn expensive that people have no choice but to rent/buy housing farther and farther from the city. Recession, or stagnation in the industry is not going away - Banks are stretched and hence credit is not flowing, so there is hardly any new investment and hence fewer opportunities on the horizon. Professional growth isn't something most mid-level executives are vying for - several, in fact, maybe just trying to keep their jobs and their salaries intact.

Back to the scene in the metro, a phone rang - given that there was no space when the co-passenger pulled out his mobile, I had no choice but to peep into this phone. I could see the Trucaller screen pop up the name of the caller - a telemarketing agency. He cut the call without bothering to pick it up and went back to the Netflix show he was watching. Had it been a friend, I would have lectured him on the HUGE privacy nightmare that TrueCaller is! On this occasion though, I kept quiet not to offend an unknown bloke.

I got down from the metro and started to look for an Uber - it took the usual 4 minutes of search and 10 minutes of waiting time for me to board one. The driver was estranged, almost as if he had resigned to the traffic which he stared at. I tried to make small talk asking him where else he had driven during the day and if traffic was any better.

D - सssब  तरफ़ ऐसाही ही है साहब!! जहाँ देखो रास्ता खोदे रक्खे हैं!
Me - चलो कम से कम waiting का तो पैसा मिलता है आपको
D - कोई फ़ायदा नहीं साहब - २ साल से Uber वाले commission कम कर दिए हैं! और traffic में गाड़ी कम चलता है तो उतना कमाई भी नहीं पूरी होती
Me - पर पहले से तो अच्छा है ना ?
D - पहले मैं काली पीली चलाता था; Uber वालों ने पहले तो सपनें दिखाए, तो हम सबने नई गाड़ी खरीदी loan लेकर - अब commission कम किया तो हमारा गाड़ी का हफ्ता ही महंगा पड़ रहा है हमें | इस से अच्छा तो हम पुरानी काली पीली ही चलाते!

The gist of the above conversation is that he bought a new Car on loan in hope of better earnings when Ridesharing companies were offering better commissions. But now that the commissions have reduced, he is finding it difficult to even manage to pay off his EMIs for the car loan. But now that he was caught in the vicious circle of the Loan-EMI repayment, there is no way he can go back. He has to continue being an Uber driver in the hope that someday his EMI will be paid off and he will start earning money - assuming the maintenance costs of his vehicle do no rise by then.

I got home and a friend was already there waiting for our pre-planned dinner. He had flown in from Delhi for a day and we decided to meet for dinner. We compared notes - Delhi was no better, real estate was marginally cheaper but public transport was worse off. His preferred method in spite of traffic woes was driving his car and his commute time was worse than mine - almost 2 hours one way. Delhi had one more problem, acute pollution which gets especially worse in winter months; he was worried if his daughter would develop asthma with the kind of air she was breathing at a young age.

---

The entire day reminded me of the dystopian movie In Time, where people stop ageing past 25 so time has become the universal currency traded between people. When the time "bank account" on an implanted clock reaches zero, that impoverished person "times out" and is euthanized. So everyone earns so that they may live a little longer, and each luxury they enjoy reduces their time to live. In a heart-wrenching scene - the protagonist goes to meet his mother when the city bus fare rises from 1 to 2 hours, and she only has 90 minutes. She tries to run to meet her son, but times out at the last moment and dies in his arms!

It feels like we are living in a parallel era, where people pay with their Privacy, their time and their Health. The vegetable vendor gets his ₹300 a month entertainment - just like Opium to fulfil his desires, while his future remains suspended in his current state; the Uber driver is perennially under debt but yet unable to give up his profession; the mid level executive stuck in his day job and stuck in the traffic of the city; also a parent stuck with poor environment and constant worry about his offspring's health!

It is as if the Big Bad Corporation - the Mobile Operator, the ride-sharing app, the MNC corp, the Govt and the Carmakers have all managed to lock the common man into a vicious cycle of selling their time, their privacy and their lives for luxuries they cannot afford anyway. It is, as if, these citizens would have been better off without the luxury - without having to pay for it, and without having enjoyed it - but alas, they are paying for these luxuries by reducing precious hours from their lifetimes!

Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash

Dadasaheb Phalke

Nana Shankarsheth

There are a lot of quotes on Attitude vs Aptitude but my favourite on this subject is this dialogue from the movie Chak De India


Kabir Khan, the coach, explains beautifully - टीम बनाने के लिए ताकत नहीं नीयत चाहिए - you need 'attitude' (intention / sincerity) to form a team and not power (aptitude). 

If you are writing off Greta Thunberg as a case of poster girl for environmentalists-with-vested-interest and believe that her doomsday predictions are just shenanigans - you are missing the point entirely.

Here's a teenager who's situation is compounded by Asperger's syndrome and Selective Mutism - speaking out aloud to a community of world leaders. Her scenarios are obviously blown out of proportion - weren't yours when you were adolescent?

The point isn't whether or not her predictions are true - the point is we adults care so much less than we should.

Mankind will not go extinct - and while some species might, its not going to be a mass extinction either. If it indeed does happen, while millions of poorer humans may perish, most of us using social media, (presumed to be) living in developed cities / towns will survive. Temperature going up by 2° will inflate your Air Conditioning bill and may be add to 'work from home' days when its either snowing or raining heavily. Recession will be longer but we will still get food. A century or so later, worst case, we might be living in artificially environment controlled domes - a little larger than today's malls. It'll be fun also - imagine your hostel days. And trust me - I am not being sarcastic!

But again, we are missing the point - just because we will survive and live better, doesn't mean than climate change isn't real or that its all brouhaha. All that the kid is asking you to do is pay more attention to the climate than economic recession or AI taking over the world. Just make it the top item on your bucket list. Raise it at every forum you can - discuss it with your friends before you talk about the next web-series.

She's a kid, what does she know? She doesn't, but her emotion, which is surely hormonally charged given her age, is what we need to relate to - all she's asking you is to think about this from your heart than just your head.

Image Credit: https://unsplash.com/photos/qbtyUQtqJ8k

Read Part 1 and Part 2

Part 3: Macanos Hangba

It was a sultry morning as he got into the newly opened Dubai Metro service, Macanos wondered why Dubai was so late in introducing metros. His own hometown, Bangkok, though much worse in terms of traffic than Dubai, had a metro network since quite some time. The reason for all these thoughts was simply that he was running late for his meeting and could not afford to be late. This was a critical meeting.

Thankfully the metro station opened into the hotel lobby and Macanos reached a good 15 minutes before the appointed time of 9:00 AM. Five minutes to 9:00, a young boy dressed like an American teenager walked in and joined him at his table – “Crimson Carter!” he said extending his hand. Macanos had heard that Internet hackers were mere ‘kids’ but he wasn’t really prepared to actually face a kid with a hoodie on him! This is going to be interesting, he said to himself.

Crimson Carter was the online identity with whom Macanos had been interacting for past several months. Following the arrest of Khan Saheb, his business was in deep trouble and he urgently needed to find ways to revive his trade if he wanted to survive. The business of arms is dirty and you cannot just quit – you make enemies in this business and they are always out to get you, so you got to keep making money – not just to make ends meet but to keep paying to secure your life.

Recent arrests in India hit him hard in two ways – Khan Saheb was a financing conduit to his customers. Militant groups in India’s North East would receive funds siphoned off from government schemes and then use these schemes to pay dealers like Macanos who would supply them arms. On the other hand, Khan being a civil servant could also provide them access to fake identities and opening Bank accounts to move and receive funds. Macanos himself had a fake Indian passport and even the recently launched Aadhar Card. Last time he had crossed the border, he even used an ATM card to withdraw funds from a Bank account earmarked for him by his hosts.

But with this arrest, the Indian intelligence agencies had cut off both – his source of funds and his channel of moving these funds – in one fell swoop! It was then that Macanos, despite his relative apathy to the Islamic terror outfits, started researching more about how they operated. After all, they had perpetrated attacks against America – they must have much superior means of working! It was in this research that he encountered Crimson Carter in a chat forum online and after a parley of emails they agreed to meet in Dubai.

Macanos wasn’t quite sure whether or not to trust Carter, he had in fact delayed this meeting for 3 months in hope of some other way emerging. But time was running out on him, it seemed that the Indian intelligence authorities had gained a lot of headway. Also, some of his ‘customers’ had gotten politically misaligned with the ruling disposition and were being targeted. He had to find other ways of financing his business and moving funds. Carter had supplied him with online passwords for email accounts, fake IDs and even Bank account numbers as a test. In today’s meeting, Macanos was going to be told the ‘hawala code’ which he had saved in an email draft on Proton – an encrypted email service.

To Macanos, all this was a huge education – after all, forget about the Internet, Hacking and Computers – he wasn’t even educated properly on literacy. Macanos was an alias he had acquired during one clandestine smuggling deals, and the name just stuck to him – his real name was Thiounn Mok and he was a Cambodian national.

Thiounn was born in the city of Batambang but by the time he was old enough to understand the world, his parents were exiled [1] to a village in the interiors by the dreaded Khmer Rouge. Then, within an year Thiounn lost his parents when Khmer Rouge executed [2] several ‘weak’ city dwellers unable to contribute to farming in the village. He, being a child, was spared, so was his uncle – his mother’s much younger brother. Thiounn and his uncle, himself 29 years of age, had seen enough bloodshed to believe in any regime – Communists or the Monarch; they were just figuring out ways to keep alive.

So, when Khmer Rouge leadership lost the war with the Vietnamese and were fleeing to Thailand, his uncle hatched a plan to join the entourage and smuggle himself and young Thiounn along with them. Thiounn was 11 when the Khmer Rouge leadership fled the country through his village which bordered the Khao Larn camp in Trat Province of Thailand [3].  On reaching Trat, they broke away from the Rouge party and with the help of local fishermen escaped to Pattaya. Once in Pattaya, they changed names, addresses and his uncle changed jobs as often as he could, always afraid of getting detected and extradited back.

Young Thiounn hence never had the luck to get a formal education and the only company he had was amongst poor kids from brothels – his education was in crime, and arms dealing came naturally as a career choice. His uncle, having lost his youth in running away from persecution and then trying to evade detection was so lost in his own insecurities that he didn’t notice when Thiounn grew up into a bulky body building teenager on the outside, but a hardened criminal on the inside.

Somewhere along the way, they just went separate ways – his uncle still languishing taking up odd jobs in Pattaya, while Thiounn carved out a life for himself in Bangkok as an arms dealer. Initially, he would keep visiting his uncle and even tried to show gratitude by helping him financially and asking him to join him in Bangkok, but his uncle would always just remain a drifter, increasingly wanting to return to his homeland. A few years later, when Thiounn visited Pattaya, he couldn’t locate his uncle as he seemed to have moved places – only to discover after some recce, that he had gone back to Cambodia. Thiounn never again contacted him – the anonymity and lack of family ties suited his criminal life anyway. From then on, he never mentioned his name Thiounn to anyone - he was Macanos Hangba.

Macanos looked at Carter and guessed that he was probably 17 or at best 19 years old – this was the age when Macanos had done his first arms deal. It was difficult to place Carter’s nationality – his face covered in a full beard, eyes covered in sunglasses and the hoodie on his head, little of his face was visible – but Macanos could guess that Carter was of South Asian descent; India, Pakistan or Bangladesh. Carter started with giving him the hawala code which turned out to be correct – the first test passed! Macanos also blurted back certain pre-decided codes to establish his identity and then Carter motioned to follow him.

Carter walked outside to the parking lot and motioned him to get into the back seat of a black SUV. As Macanos, opened the door and stepped in to sit, he sensed fear – but it was too late; two hands came from behind, blindfolded him and he felt the nozzle of a pistol being pointed to the temple – a thick voice instructed him to keep his mouth shut to avoid being shot.

Macanos cursed his own negligence, he had apprehensions about the identity of Carter and he knew that meeting someone in a foreign country was fraught with risk of his playing into the enemies’ hands. But it was too late to reminisce – what he wondered now was what would happen next. He had taken a calculated risk when he knew that the meeting would be in Dubai – a country with a heavily controlled law and order system. He was quite sure his meeting and even his entry into the SUV was recorded in the CCTV cameras. If his enemies wanted to get him, Pattaya or Phuket would have been better options – why Dubai?

The car started moving, in between, he had heard some conversation between the kid whom he had met as Carter and the thick voice who commanded him. The kid must have been a non-entity contracted to just meet him and get him to the SUV, it was apparent that the kid was not in the car any longer. No words were spoken for the next several minutes as the car seem to have been cruising at high speeds on the highways of Dubai.

After several minutes, they came to a halt, the felt the pistol being withdrawn from his temple and his blindfold being removed. The door opened and when he looked out, a valet wearing a uniform was standing holding the door – this was an unusual abduction style for Macanos. His abductors stayed in the car as it drove off and the valet let him into a warehouse-like building outside which they stood. Macanos cast an eye on the surrounding, and all he could see in all three directions was the Desert.

They entered the warehouse shed, which seemed like a storage facility for electronics – he could see boxes with images of computers, laptops, printers etc on them. The valet led him to a set of stairs, and he saw glass panelled offices lining up to where they ended. As they reached the top of the stairs, the valet opened a glass door for him and stood outside while ushering him in. The man seated behind the desk rose as Macanos entered and extended his hand – “I apologise for the last 40 minutes of harrowing experience you’ve had Macanos, but this was necessary to secure us.”

Macanos was relieved, it seemed that the bluff was over, this was not an abduction and he may live to see many more suns. The man explained that ‘Crimson Carter’ was not a single individual but a whole organization of hackers who worked in a loose federation. They were all independent – he himself did not know the real identities of all the hackers but he was their quarter-master nevertheless. He managed to get them deals, arrange payments and kept the engine running. Some of them called him the ‘accountant’ which was technically his role in this cartel. When dealing with players like Macanos where payments wouldn’t necessarily come via established banking channels, they wanted to be sure of the identity of the individual giving them business but to keep matters as discrete as possible, they had employed this method of pseudo abduction.

He then explained that things were changing and soon, they may even be able to transact money without much hassle using a new technology called Bitcoins. Many hackers in his network were already asking him to pay them in Bitcoins and asked Macanos if he had any Bitcoins which he can pay them in. Macanos could just blurt out a ‘No’, knowing well that the expressions on his face gave away that he was hearing this name for the first time.

Then they came to the subject – what did Macanos want? Macanos explained his problem that he needed secure means of exchanging information and money with his customers; he wondered if he should ask how he could use this Bitcoin thing, but refrained knowing well that his customers in North East India might be even more unfamiliar with this term than him. He did not want to add any more complexity to the chain which was already weakening after Khan Saheb’s arrest.

The solution was simple, he was explained - the hacking group would break into email accounts of real people, steal their identities and use this information to create fictitious bank accounts which can then be used to transfer stolen money without the authorities ever noticing. He was told about a pricing model where the rate changed depending on the nationality of the victim – stealing an American identity would be the priciest – given that the Americans had superior technology to detect such hacks, the cheapest would be Bangladeshi or Pakistani nationals followed by Indians and then the Burmese and Thai.

Macanos was sold – it sounded simple enough and very similar to what Khan Saheb had provided. Instead of a fake identity, he would use a stolen identity from the hackers. If they could supply an Indian identity, this would be the lowest friction route to solving his problems; he was familiar with the modus operandi to use an Indian identity to transact. A deal was struck, an Indian identity it would be – Macanos was told they’d get back to him with a few names over IRC in the next few days. Some advance in US Dollars had to be made the next day at the same hotel lobby where he met the kid today and the rest would have to be arranged in Bangkok.
... to be continued.

Photo by Drew McKechnie on Unsplash

If you have ever visited Jabalpur, you surely would have taken a boat ride across 'Bandar Kodini' at the Bhedaghat waterfalls. The boat ride initially takes you along the Narmada river at a leisurely pace, as you gape in wonder at the majestic white cliffs - a hundred feet tall on both sides - changing colour. They do not actually change colours, the cliffs comprise of many shades of marble and as the rays of the sun bounce off their surface, give an illusion of changing colours. And then as your boat ride comes to a close, the tranquil waters of the river gain a sense of urgency after a point and turn turbulent as they crash down the Dhuandhar falls.

I don't know if the new Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has ever visited Bhedaghat, but she might be able to relate this with the experience she is going to have with the Indian economy. The two giant cliffs she is rowing the boat between are Slowdown in Economy and Managing Inflation. With the NDA government having managed a thumping victory in the elections - the waters are very calm now on the surface but as we get nearer to another election, the waters will again turn turbulent like they did for the UPA-2 (though for an entirely different set of reasons) from 2012-13.

The simile with Bhedaghat doesn't end here - the cliffs that Sitaraman faces change their colours and hues. Economic Slowdown manifests in form of farm sector distress, and the moment you allow farm incomes to rise - you drift towards the other cliff - retail inflation! Then you might try to solve the dual issues by not allowing farm output costs to rise (thus keeping retail inflation in check) but dole out money to farmers via Income Guarantee schemes like MNREGA or PM-Kisan Samman.

But the moment you grant income guarantee to farmers, the cost of labour goes up [read more on this here]. With this, sectors like real estate - already grappling with a slowdown due to structural reasons, stringent regulation and impact of demonetisation - will suffer the problem of labour shortage.

The manufacturing sector will also start avoiding labour because they are costly and their availability very seasonal. Also, as labour availability drops or cost of labour rises, manufacturing becomes a capital intensive industry rather than labour intensive industry (like it is in China) - and so that leads to a drop in generation of jobs which is again another sign (colour) of the Economic Slowdown.

If you've noticed the highlighted text - we have come a full circle from Economic Slowdown to Economic slowdown, just like you can keep shuttling between two tall marble cliffs at Bhedaghat.

Successive finance ministers have kept shifting their policy positions from trying to spruce up the 'Indian economy' to gain escape velocity 8%+ growth to trying to protect 'Bharatiya Arthvyavastha' from getting marginalised in the rising tide. If you had infinite time, you could keep shuttling between these two and enjoy your boat ride merrily - like successive FMs starting with Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant Singh, P Chidrambaram, Pranab Mukherjee, and finally Arun Jaitley have done.

But as all of their cases indicate - no one has infinite time; with every election comes the point where the river leads to a waterfall. Vajpayee lost because his FMs could not manage consumer distress, Chidambaram survived because he managed to keep growth high but in the very next term this came biting the UPA back and leading to high inflation coupled with cases of corruption in high places. With Jaitley, the reverse happened where farm distress came biting him back, but two things saved him - one that he got an opportunity to bring in a short term solution of PM-Kisan in the interim budget and second is national security becoming the focal point of the 2019 elections. The government's ability to execute PM-Kisan with swiftness definitely had a role to play.

However, Nirmala Sitaraman now has to bear the brunt of increased load on government expenditure of welfare schemes, at the same time managing to maintain low inflation, high growth and yet keeping fiscal deficit low. Unfortunately, solutions for her lie outside the purview of the Finance Ministry into structural reforms by other ministries - probably the reason why her role in the Cabinet committees will be more important than her role within her own ministry. Some of the changes that need to be brought about are:

1. Land reforms - For all the talk about India's farm distress, the most visible statistic is India's agricultural productivity which is less than 6% of the global average and 25% of the median. Urgent reform in land laws and agricultural ownership methods - this is urgently needed so that the farm sector gets corporatised and can improve its productivity.
   
   
2. Labour reforms - the reason for manufacturing boom in China is not a program like Make In India or Make America Great Again, but flexible labour laws. As much as I believe that the global economy has already passed the point where manufacturing can become a force to beckon [ref], if any country wants to employ its people in labour-intensive industries - whether its manufacturing or BPO/KPO services - freedom to hire and fire labour is a key requirement to boost employment.
   
   One of the reasons why a majority of employment is generated in India by Small Enterprises rather than large ones is that major labour laws do not apply to Small Enterprises. So large corporations often prefer outsourcing jobs to smaller companies than insourcing those jobs by increasing workforce. The result, of course, is not just non-applicability of labour laws on labour employed but also the exclusion of this labour from government statistics and social security programs offered by large corporations. If only certain aspects of labour laws were modernized, these labour could enjoy better work conditions doing the same work they are doing right now, but under the aegis of a larger corporatised entity in the formal sector. 
3. Infrastructure development - mostly the portfolio of Nitin Gadkari; improving infrastructure will contribute to a large extent in removing the growth bottlenecks for the industry. Again, the China equivalent shows up - whether it is highways, highspeed rail or better-planned IDCs (Industrial Development Corridors) - almost all measures are outside the purview of the Finance Minister's portfolio. 

Finally, what can the FM do within her own department which can bring about required changes - the list indeed is short:

1. Resolve the NPA mess and bring about measures to improve corporate governance in public sector banks  
2. Provide tax subsidies or reductions or both to export-oriented industries which are badly hit by the US government's announcement to revoke GSP status from India.
3. Sops for sunrise sectors of consumption such as food processing, energy (especially cleantech) and technology. 
4. One of the biggest challenges for the RBI has been that its decisions to cut interest rates have little impact on the markets because Banks choose not to transmit these rates to the market. While I am not a big fan of the Govt running the Banking Business, nevertheless, given that the government does today own majority of Banks and regularly intervenes causing ill-effects on the economy; the govt can push public sector banks to get better interest rate cut transmission. 

Its a tough job and historically, no one has emerged unscathed from their role as the Finance Minister - including the much haloed Manmohan Singh. It remains to be seen how India's first woman Finance Minister fares with this role!
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